Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.561668 1.633147 1.707679 1.791479 1.883427 1.981652 2.095059
2026-01-18 1.479970 1.575254 1.678080 1.798134 1.935572 2.089403 2.276657
2026-01-25 1.396536 1.504253 1.623260 1.765950 1.934431 2.129769 2.377674
2026-02-01 1.342391 1.460484 1.593587 1.756910 1.955145 2.192547 2.506047
2026-02-08 1.295229 1.420839 1.564785 1.744907 1.968816 2.244803 2.622831
2026-02-15 1.253261 1.384392 1.536800 1.730763 1.977002 2.288504 2.729936
2026-02-22 1.226145 1.363705 1.525830 1.735688 2.007891 2.361715 2.881835
2026-03-01 1.182558 1.321078 1.485831 1.701503 1.985322 2.361188 2.928173
2026-03-08 1.148198 1.288218 1.456239 1.678632 1.975537 2.376209 2.996976
2026-03-15 1.120742 1.262707 1.434554 1.664516 1.975992 2.404482 3.087125
2026-03-22 1.111981 1.259819 1.440861 1.686725 2.026364 2.506260 3.301952
2026-03-29 1.106916 1.261135 1.452228 1.715704 2.087254 2.627490 3.563830
2026-04-05 1.086933 1.243418 1.438992 1.711678 2.102203 2.682610 3.724487
2026-04-12 1.070974 1.230231 1.431018 1.714215 2.126379 2.753380 3.923016
2026-04-19 1.042417 1.199990 1.399561 1.682744 2.098417 2.738715 3.958715
2026-04-26 1.024072 1.182448 1.384334 1.673283 2.102662 2.776265 4.100933
2026-05-03 1.005904 1.164616 1.368106 1.661624 2.102707 2.806461 4.232562
2026-05-10 0.988059 1.146736 1.351242 1.648309 2.099318 2.830254 4.354192
2026-05-17 0.977674 1.138330 1.346824 1.652548 2.123155 2.902383 4.593532
2026-05-24 0.954870 1.112986 1.318665 1.621229 2.089188 2.869826 4.588382
2026-05-31 0.936693 1.093440 1.298001 1.600265 2.070868 2.864194 4.646624
2026-06-07 0.922100 1.078372 1.283121 1.587318 2.064809 2.880305 4.760446
2026-06-14 0.919708 1.079510 1.290552 1.607575 2.113557 3.001414 5.165002